The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Index for February 2008 . The index measures contracts signed in a month. When a home closes it will be counted as an existing home sale. Seasonally adjusted the index was down 1.9% from January and down 21.4% from a year ago. Without seasonal adjustments, in February the index was down 17.4% year over year compared to being down 19.7% in January year over year.
2001 was the previously the slowest year since the index was started. In February 2008 the index was 17.5% lower than February 2001 and in January 2008 the index was 15.5% lower than January 2001.
2001 was the previously the slowest year since the index was started. In February 2008 the index was 17.5% lower than February 2001 and in January 2008 the index was 15.5% lower than January 2001. 
The NAR has revised down their projection for prices in 2008 to a decline of 1.4% to a median price of $215,800. They kept their 2009 projection the same at a rise of 3.7% to $223,800 next year. Last month they projected a decline of 1.2% to $216,300 for 2008. Their projection of a small decline of 1.4% in 2008 sounds very practical and modest. However prices have declined by 10.5% to $195,900 from the median of $219,000 reached in 2007. In order for the median for 2008 to reach $215,800, prices for the rest of the year would have to be even higher to make up the low numbers recorded in January and February. They are currently forecasting median home prices to reach $228,700 by third quarter (16.7% higher than February’s $195,900). The Case Shiller CME housing futures are projecting a decline of 11.9% from January 2008 to September 2008 (this previous post discusses the futures). It will be interesting to see if and how the NAR will revise their figures in the future.
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