Existing Home Sales Graph

NAR Press Release.

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Residential Vacancies Graph

Link to the U.S. Census Bureau's 3rd Quarter Residential Vacancies and Homeownership Report.

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S&P Case Shiller Index posts strong gains

The S&P Case Shiller Index posted strong gains. Month over month, the Composite-10 index increased by 1.9%. The index is still down 15.13% year over year. 17 of the 20 markets in the Composite-20 index posted positive month over month gains. The data for the index is a compiled using a three month average. Since last month was positive and the trend is moving up strongly, next month should also come in with a strong gain.
The month over month gains are the highest since the market peaked in 2005.

I have removed the CME Housing Futures data from the chart because they have become so thinly traded.

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An overview of the housing crisis

Zero Hedge has a presentation from T2 Partners on where we are at in the housing crisis.  It is packed full of great charts.

Here are a few of my favorites:

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Case-Shiller index shows the decline in housing prices is slowing

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for April 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 0.67% in April compared to March 2009 (last month it declined by 2.10%) and declined by 18.01% from a year ago (compared to 18.68% last month).

The composite-10 is now down 33.56% from its peak. The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for three months in a row after declining at a faster pace each month for 25 months in a row. The home price index is not seasonally adjusted. In the last 20 years, home prices have averaged appreciation of 5.29% a year. March through August are typically the strongest months for appreciation and home prices have on average appreciated by 4.40% during that 6 month period. September through February are the weakest months; home prices have on average appreciated by only 0.89% during that 6 month period. In the next month or two, the index could post a positive month over month gain. However, I expect it to fall again as we head into the winter months.

The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -10.20% by next March for the composite-10.

You can click on the images for a larger view.

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Existing Home Sales and Median Prices Rise Slightly

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for May 2009 today.  Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.770 million units in March up from 4.660 million units in April and down from 4.950 million units in May 2008.

The median sales price was $176,000 for May up from $166,600 in April (up 3.8%) but down from $207,900 in May 2008 (down 16.8%). Months supply was 9.6 in May, down from 10.1 in April. According to the NAR, distressed properties accounted for 33% of all transactions in May down from 45% in April. 

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls at Slower Pace

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for March 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 2.06% in March compared to February 2009 (last month it declined by 2.12%) and declined by 18.65% from a year ago (compared to 18.89% last month).

The composite-10 is now down 33.09% from its peak. The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for two months in a row after declining at a faster pace each month for 25 months in a row.

The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -10.40% by next March for the composite-10.

You can click on the images for a larger view.

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index decline slows

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for February 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 2.11% from January 2008 (last month it declined by 2.55%) and declined by 18.83% from a year ago (compared to 19.39% last month). The composite-10 is now down 31.64% from its peak.

The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for the first time in over two years.  The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -12.30% by next February for the composite-10.

You can click on the images for a larger view.

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Existing home sales decrease but median sales price is up

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for March 2009 yesterday. Sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.570 million units in March down from 4.710 million units in February and down from 4.920 million units in March 2008.

The median sales price was $175,200 for March up from $168,200 in February (up 4.16%) but down from $200,100 in March 2008 (down 12.4%).  Months supply was 9.8 in March, up from 9.7 in February.  According to the NAR, distressed properties accounted for just over half of all transactions in March and are selling for 20 percent less than traditional homes.

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index now down over 30% from peak

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for January 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 2.55% from December 2008 (last month it declined by 2.34%) and declined by 19.39% from a year ago (compared to 19.14% last month). The composite-10 is now down 30.16% from its peak. The Composite-10 has now declined at a faster pace year over year for 25 straight months now.

The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -7.45% by next January for the composite-10.

You can click on the images for a larger view.

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Existing Home Sales Rise

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for February 2009 today. Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.720 million units in February up from 4.490 million units in January but down from 4.950 million units in February 2008. The median sales price was $165,400 for February up from $164,800 in January (up 0.4%) but down from $195,800 in February 2008 (down 15.5%).  The January numbers were revised downward from $170,300 as reported last month to $164,800. 

Months supply was 9.7 in February, the same as it was in January.  According to the NAR, currently 40-45% of all transactions are distressed sales.

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New Home Sales Rise in February

New home sales data showed signs of settling down.  Permits rose 3% in February compared to January 2009.  Year over year permits were down 44%.  Starts in February were up 22% compared to the previous month and were down 47% year over year.  Completions in February were up 2% compared to January and were down 37% compared to a year ago. 

The bad news is this is increasing the supply of new homes.  There are already 13.3 months supply of homes.  Months supply has risen every month for the last 4 months now.  There will continue to be downward pressure on new home prices.

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