Existing Home Sales Graph

NAR Press Release.

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Residential Vacancies Graph

Link to the U.S. Census Bureau's 3rd Quarter Residential Vacancies and Homeownership Report.

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Existing Home Sales and Median Prices Rise Slightly

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for May 2009 today.  Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.770 million units in March up from 4.660 million units in April and down from 4.950 million units in May 2008.

The median sales price was $176,000 for May up from $166,600 in April (up 3.8%) but down from $207,900 in May 2008 (down 16.8%). Months supply was 9.6 in May, down from 10.1 in April. According to the NAR, distressed properties accounted for 33% of all transactions in May down from 45% in April. 

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Existing home sales decrease but median sales price is up

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for March 2009 yesterday. Sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.570 million units in March down from 4.710 million units in February and down from 4.920 million units in March 2008.

The median sales price was $175,200 for March up from $168,200 in February (up 4.16%) but down from $200,100 in March 2008 (down 12.4%).  Months supply was 9.8 in March, up from 9.7 in February.  According to the NAR, distressed properties accounted for just over half of all transactions in March and are selling for 20 percent less than traditional homes.

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Existing Home Sales Rise

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for February 2009 today. Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.720 million units in February up from 4.490 million units in January but down from 4.950 million units in February 2008. The median sales price was $165,400 for February up from $164,800 in January (up 0.4%) but down from $195,800 in February 2008 (down 15.5%).  The January numbers were revised downward from $170,300 as reported last month to $164,800. 

Months supply was 9.7 in February, the same as it was in January.  According to the NAR, currently 40-45% of all transactions are distressed sales.

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Existing Home Sales and Prices Fall

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for January 2009 today. Sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.490 million units in January down from 4.740 million units in December but down from 4.910 million units in January 2008. The median sales price was $170,300 for January down from $175,700 in December (down 3.1%) and down from $199,800 in January 2008 (down 14.8%). The price decline was again led by the West where the median price declined by 4.2% compared to the previous month dropping from a median price of $229,700 in December 2008 to $220,000 last month. The median home price for the West in July 2007 was at $349,400; the median is now 37.0% lower.

Months supply rose to 9.6 in January from 9.4 in December. This was due to a drop in sales while inventory dropped slightly. According to the NAR, currently 45% of all transactions are distressed sales.

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Pending Sales Rise in December

Today, the National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales Index for contracts signed in December 2008. On a seasonally adjusted basis the index was at 87.7 up from 82.5 in November 2008 and up from 85.9 in December 2007. 2001 was previously the slowest year for pending home sales on record. Without seasonal adjustments, November 2008 was 17.0% lower than November 2001's sales pace. The increase in month over month pending sales were due to strong seasonally adjusted gains in the Midwest and South. The increase in the year over year pending sales was mainly due to strong sales in the West. Seasonally adjusted the West saw a decrease of 3.7% month over month but an increase of 17.5% year over year. The Midwest and South increased by an average of 12.9% month over month but increased by only an average of 0.2% year over year.

The NAR made a downward adjustment in their median home sales price forecast for 2009 to $192,800. Just a few months ago, their forecast for median sales prices in 2009 was $215,800. The NAR is forecasting the median home sales price for 2010 to be $201,700.

Pending sales have settled down over the last 12 months. However, the foreclosure mix has been rising.

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Existing home sales are up; prices continue down

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for December 2008 today. Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.740 million units in December up from 4.450 million units in November but down from 4.910 million units in December 2007. The median sales price was $175,400 for December down from $180,300 in November (down 2.7%) and down from $207,000 in December 2007 (down 15.3%). The price decline was again led by the West where the median price declined by 11.6% compared to the previous month dropping from a median price of $241,000 in November 2008 to $213,100 last month. The median home price for the West in July 2007 was at $349,400; the median is now 39.0% lower.

Month's supply dropped 9.3 in December from 11.2 in November. This was largely due to a decrease in inventory from $4.163 million units in November to $3.676 million units in December. Inventory has dropped by an average of 8.2% in December from 2001 to 2007. This year the drop was 11.7%; larger than normal but not exceptionally large.

According to the NAR, currently 45% of all transactions are distressed sales. There is currently a moratorium on foreclosures that will be ending soon, so housing will continue to fall under intense pressure. Perhaps the biggest question is when will prices in the West firm up.

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Pending Home Sales Slump in November

Today, the National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales Index for contracts signed in November 2008. On a seasonally adjusted basis the index was at 82.3% down 4.0% from October 2008 and down 5.3% compared to November 2007's figure of 86.9. 2001 was previously the slowest year for pending home sales on record. Without seasonal adjustments, November 2008 was 23.6% lower than November 2001's sales pace. Pending sales were bolstered by strong sales in the West. Seasonally adjusted the West saw a decrease of 2.4% month over month but an increase of 19.3% year over year. The other regions decreased by an average of 5.4% month over month and decreased by an average of 12.5% year over year.  

The NAR made a downward adjustment in their median home sales price forecast for 2009 to $198,100 (up from their forecast of $197,000 for 2008).  Just a few months ago, their forecast for median sales prices in 2009 was $215,800.  The NAR is forecasting the median home sales price for 2010 to be $207,700.  Former chief economist for the NAR, David Lereah, sees prices continuing to drop by another 5-10%.    

After relatively strong months in August and September, sales activity has dropped off considerably with the intensifying credit crunch we experienced a few months ago.  We are now entering into a period where pending home sales slow down dramatically.

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Existing Home Sales plummet in November

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for November 2008 today. Sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.490 million units in November down sharply from 4.980 million units in October and 5.020 million units in November 2007.  The median sales price was $181,00 for November down from $186,500 in October (down 2.8%) and down from $208,800 in November 2007 (down 13.2%). The price decline was again led by the West where the median price declined by 6.3% compared to the previous month. March through August are the strongest months for home prices. We are now entering the weak time for home prices. The market turmoil is not helping things either.

In the NAR's news release Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, cautions:

"There will be negative consequences if housing stimulus is delayed.  Falling home prices would lead to faster contraction in consumer spending and further deterioration in bank balance sheets. More importantly, falling home values would lead to higher loan defaults, including those recently modified distressed mortgages.”  I agree with Yun on the consequences of falling home prices.  However, I think that even with housing stimulus, home prices will continue to decline until they are in line with historical norms for Price to Rent Ratios, Price to Income Ratios, and until Supply is in line with Demand. 

Month's supply rose to 11.2 in November from 10.3 in October. Month's supply is normally lowest in the winter months. November's increase is an ominous omen for 2009.

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Pending home sales down moderately as prices drop

Today, the National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales Index for contracts signed in October 2008.  On a seasonally adjusted basis the index was at 88.9% down 0.7% from September 2008 and down 1.0% compared to October 2007's figure of 89.8. 2001 was previously the slowest year for pending home sales on record. October 2008 was 8.0% lower than October 2001's sales pace. Pending sales were bolstered by strong sales in the West. Seasonally adjusted the West saw a decrease of 8.7% month over month but an increase of 17.4% year over year. The other regions increased by an average of 1.2% month over month and decreased by an average of 7.9% year over year.

Pending home sales are being helped by a large decrease in home prices in the West. Median home prices in the West dropped from $255,100 in September to $231,400 in October (-9.3%).  The median home price in the West is down 27.0% year over year. The other three regions are down by an average of 6.2%.

The NAR made a downward adjustment in their median home sales price forecast for 2008 to $198,500 and they lowered their 2009 median home sales price forecast to $199,200. Just a few months ago, their forecast for median sales prices in 2009 was $215,800.  We are now entering into a period where pending home sales slow down dramatically. The credit crisis is exasperating things.

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Existing homes sales decline slightly; prices decline sharply

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for October 2008 today.  Sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.980 million units in October, down 3.11% from September 2008 and down 1.58% from October 2007.  The median sales price was $183,300 for October down sharply from $191,400 in September (down 4.2%) and down from $206,700 in October 2007 (down 8.98%).  The price decline was led by the West where the median price declined by 9.3% compared to the previous month.  March through August are the strongest months for home prices. We are now entering the weak time for home prices. The market turmoil is not helping things either. 

According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist:

“Many potential home buyers appear to have withdrawn from the market due to the stock market collapse and deteriorating economic conditions.  We have favorable affordability conditions, but we need more than that to give buyers with jobs the confidence they need. This is why a housing stimulus is so critical now to encourage more buyers to draw down the inventory and stabilize home prices. Without home price stabilization, there will not be an economic recovery.”

I agree with Yun in that this recession is being led by the housing crisis.  I believe that we won't see the bottom until the real estate bottom is in sight.  Month's supply rose from 10.0 in September to 10.2 in October. Month's supply is normally lowest in the winter months. There is a huge oversupply of homes that the industry has to work through before supply and demand is balanced.

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Pending home sales rise year over year; NAR lowers price forecast

On Friday, the National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales Index for contracts signed in September 2008. On a seasonally adjusted basis the index was at 89.2 down 4.6% from September 2008 and also up 1.6% compared to September 2007's figure of 87.8. 2001 was previously the slowest year for pending home sales on record. September 2008 was 4.7% higher than September 2001's sales pace. This is the first time since June of 2007 that the 2001 pace was eclipsed.

The increases in pending sales was due to a large increase in the West. Seasonally adjusted the West saw an increase of 3.7% month over month and 39.6% year over year. Each of the regions declined by an average of averaged an increase of 8.5% month over month and 7.9% year over year. This is due to a large decrease in home prices in the West in August. Median home prices in the West dropped from $282,000 in July to $251,600 in August and went back up to $253,600. The median home price in the West is down 39.5% year over year. The other three regions are down by an average of 7.9%.

The NAR made a downward adjustment in their median home sales price forecast for 2008 from $200,700 to $198,600. The NAR is forecasting 2009 median home sales prices to be at $200,800. Just a couple of months ago, their forecast for median sales prices in 2009 was $215,800. October median home sales prices will be announced later this month, but they must not have been pretty. We are now entering into a period where pending home sales slow down dramatically. The credit crisis is exasperating things.

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Existing home sales rise on lower prices

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for September 2008 today. Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.180 million units in September, up 5.50% from August 2008 and up 1.37% from September 2007.  This is the first time sales have increased on a year to year basis in 30 months.   The median sales price was $191,600 for September down sharply from $203,100 in August (down 5.7%) and down from $210,500 in September 2007 (down 8.98%).  According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, “compared to a fairly small share of foreclosures or short sales a year ago, distressed sales are currently 35 to 40 percent of transactions. These are pulling the median price down because many are being sold at discounted prices.”  March through August are the strongest months for home prices.  We are now entering the weak time for home prices.  The market turmoil is not helping things either.

Month's supply fell from 10.6 to 9.9 in September.  Month's supply is normally lowest in the winter months.  There is still a huge oversupply of homes that the industry has to work through before supply and demand is balanced. 

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Pending home sales were up in August; NAR lowers their price forecast yet again

The Pending Home Sales Index for contracts signed in August 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis was at 93.4 up 7.36% from August 2008 and also up 8.86% compared to August 2007's figure of 85.8.

Without seasonal adjustments, the index was up 4.97% compared to August 2008. 2001 was previously the slowest year for pending home sales on record. August 2008 was 6.57% below August 2001's sales pace. July 2008 was 12.77% below the 2001 level.

The increases in pending sales was mostly due to a large increase in the West. Seasonally adjusted the West saw an increase of 18.4% month over month and 37.8% year over year. The rest of the regions averaged an increase of 4.8% month over month and 2.2% year over year. This is due to a large decrease in home prices in the West in August. Median home prices in the West dropped from $282,000 in July to $251,600 in August, a drop of 10.8% month over month. The rest of the country averaged a drop of 0.9% in August month over month.

It appears the housing cycle may be moving from a period of declining sales and declining prices to one of increasing sales with declining prices. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said “What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region." He says "It’s unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we’re hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales.” Pending home sales in August were entered into before the credit crisis erupted in September.

The NAR made a downward adjustment in their median home sales price forecast for 2008 from $203,600 to $200,700. The NAR is forecasting 2009 median home sales prices to be at $206,300 (versus their projection last month of $208,500 and their projection in August of $215,800 for 2009). In June they had dropped their 2008 forecast by 4.1% from $213,700 to $205,000. We are now entering into a period where pending home sales slow down dramatically. The credit crisis isn't helping things either.

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Existing Home Sales continue to fall; inventory stabilizes

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for August 2008 today. Sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.910 million units in August, down 2.19% from July 2008 and down 10.73% from August 2007. Sales have averaged an annual rate of 4.940 for the first eight months this year. The median sales price was $203,100 for August down sharply from $212,400 in July (down 3.4%) and down from $224,400 in August 2007 (down 9.5%). The price declines were led by the West which was down 10.8% in August compared to the previous month. The other 3 regions were only down 0.9% for the month. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist: “The highest concentration of foreclosures is in the West, which is weighing down the median price because many buyers are taking advantage of deeply discounted prices.”

The inventory of existing homes fell to 4.225 million units down from 4.575 million in July 2008. Even though sales fell in August, the fall in inventory was bigger causing Month's supply to fall to 10.4 from the previous month's figure of 10.9. While month's supply and inventory improved slightly, there is still too much supply. We are also entering into a slower season for real estate.

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