Today, the National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales Index for contracts signed in November 2008. On a seasonally adjusted basis the index was at 82.3% down 4.0% from October 2008 and down 5.3% compared to November 2007's figure of 86.9. 2001 was previously the slowest year for pending home sales on record. Without seasonal adjustments, November 2008 was 23.6% lower than November 2001's sales pace. Pending sales were bolstered by strong sales in the West. Seasonally adjusted the West saw a decrease of 2.4% month over month but an increase of 19.3% year over year. The other regions decreased by an average of 5.4% month over month and decreased by an average of 12.5% year over year.
The NAR made a downward adjustment in their median home sales price forecast for 2009 to $198,100 (up from their forecast of $197,000 for 2008). Just a few months ago, their forecast for median sales prices in 2009 was $215,800. The NAR is forecasting the median home sales price for 2010 to be $207,700. Former chief economist for the NAR, David Lereah, sees prices continuing to drop by another 5-10%.
After relatively strong months in August and September, sales activity has dropped off considerably with the intensifying credit crunch we experienced a few months ago. We are now entering into a period where pending home sales slow down dramatically.
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