The U.S. Census Bureau released the residential vacancies figures today. Rental vacancies rose to 10.1% from 9.6% last quarter. From 1987 to 2001, rental vacancies did not vary too much averaging 7.60%. Without an increase in renters, 1,035,000 properties would need to be removed from the rental pool for the rental vacancies to go back to the average of 7.60% vacancies.
The rate for homeowner vacancies increased to 2.9% from 2.8% last quarter. From 1987 to 2001, rental vacancies were very steady averaging 1.63%. Without an increase in homeowners, about 1,025,000 properties would need to be removed from the homeowners pool for the vacancies to go back to the average of 1.63% vacancies.
The total combined excess units comes to 2,060,000. As a comparison, the total amount of listed properties per zillow.com is currently at 2,082,774. In other words, if every home currently listed for sale were eliminated from the equation (were never built in the first place), then supply and demand would be back to normal. From a different perspective, new homes are being sold at an annual rate of 526,000.
The Census Bureau adjusts the vacancies for vacant units that have been recently sold or rented but are not yet occupied. I don't have access to that data, so I am not omitting those units in my calculations or graphs.
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3 comments:
We are WAY overbuilt. I just don't understand all these so called MSM experts predicting a bottom in the second half of 2008.
The only thing that everyone agrees on is that the end is near. Some mean it in an apocalyptic sense; whereas most others mean for it to be reassuring. Sometimes it seems that every press release is the same: we will reach the bottom shortly. However they keep saying that quarter after quarter.
This sounds really interesting. I haven’t heard about anything like this previously. I have huge interest in real estate. Thanks
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