The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for April 2008 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 1.56% from March and declined by 16.34% from April 2007. The composite-10 is now down 19.06% from its peak. All 20 individual markets are now down year over with Las Vegas and Miami down the most at -26.81% and -26.73% respectively. Charlotte and Dallas are down the least at -0.12% and -3.42% respectively. 8 markets where up in April compared to the previous month (Denver, Chicago, Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Portland, Dallas, and Seattle).
The composite-10 is now down -19.06% from its peak. 8 markets have now dropped over 20% from their peak led by Las Vegas (-29.34%) and Phoenix (-29.06%). The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -14.73% by next April for the composite-10.
While it is encouraging that a few markets posted month over month gains, April was also when the market was pricing in that the worst was over and the recession had been averted. Today, the market is not as optimistic. The home price index figures are not seasonally adjusted. In the last 20 years, home prices have averaged appreciation of 5.29% a year. March through August are typically the strongest months for appreciation and home prices have on average appreciated by 4.40% during that 6 month period. September through February are the weakest months; home prices have on average appreciated by only 0.89% during that 6 month period. In 2007, the declines were moderate in the first half of the year and started rapidly declining in August.
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