An overview of the housing crisis

Zero Hedge has a presentation from T2 Partners on where we are at in the housing crisis.  It is packed full of great charts.

Here are a few of my favorites:

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Case-Shiller index shows the decline in housing prices is slowing

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for April 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 0.67% in April compared to March 2009 (last month it declined by 2.10%) and declined by 18.01% from a year ago (compared to 18.68% last month).

The composite-10 is now down 33.56% from its peak. The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for three months in a row after declining at a faster pace each month for 25 months in a row. The home price index is not seasonally adjusted. In the last 20 years, home prices have averaged appreciation of 5.29% a year. March through August are typically the strongest months for appreciation and home prices have on average appreciated by 4.40% during that 6 month period. September through February are the weakest months; home prices have on average appreciated by only 0.89% during that 6 month period. In the next month or two, the index could post a positive month over month gain. However, I expect it to fall again as we head into the winter months.

The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -10.20% by next March for the composite-10.

You can click on the images for a larger view.

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Existing Home Sales and Median Prices Rise Slightly

The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for May 2009 today.  Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.770 million units in March up from 4.660 million units in April and down from 4.950 million units in May 2008.

The median sales price was $176,000 for May up from $166,600 in April (up 3.8%) but down from $207,900 in May 2008 (down 16.8%). Months supply was 9.6 in May, down from 10.1 in April. According to the NAR, distressed properties accounted for 33% of all transactions in May down from 45% in April. 

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An alternate "more adverse" scenario

So far, the unemployment rate has been higher than the "more adverse" scenario used in the stress test. Calculated Risk has an updated chart using just two month's of data:

The "more adverse" scenario seems to be a plausible forecast for the economy.  In fact, the Unemployment rate looks like it will reach 10.3% this year which is the "more adverse" scenario for the average unemployment rate for 2010.    Per the Federal Reserve, "the likelihood that the average unemployment rate in 2010 could be at least as high as in the alternative more adverse scenario is roughly 10 percent."  If the "more adverse" scenario is the new baseline forecast, then I wonder how the banks would fare in a worse case scenario. 

Seeking Alpha has a great spreadsheet that let's you plug in different unemployment rate forecasts and loss rate assumptions.  In the Stress Test, the economists had forecast that the average unemployment rate for 2010 would be 8.8% with a 10% chance of being 1.5% higher at 10.3%.  In spreadsheet to the right, I am using an unemployment rate of 11.8% as the more adverse scenario (if you change the baseline forecast to 10.3%, then it seemed logical that there would be a 10% chance that the unemployment rate would reach 11.8%).

There is a big disparity between the healthy banks and the banks that would be stressed under a more adverse scenario than the Fed used. 

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Talking Heads

Jon Stewart had an interesting interview with Peter Schiff where he compiled different clips over the years of people laughing at Schiff's calls.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Peter Schiff
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Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Newt Gingrich Unedited Interview

Here is Peter Schiff in a blast from the past:

But as David Rosenberg once said, "In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call."

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls at Slower Pace

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for March 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 2.06% in March compared to February 2009 (last month it declined by 2.12%) and declined by 18.65% from a year ago (compared to 18.89% last month).

The composite-10 is now down 33.09% from its peak. The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for two months in a row after declining at a faster pace each month for 25 months in a row.

The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -10.40% by next March for the composite-10.

You can click on the images for a larger view.

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US Debt Clock

Take a deep breathe before clicking on the picture.

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Job losses at the county level

Slate.com has an amazing graphic showing the job losses month by month, county by county. Just as recently as June 2008 (as the map on the right shows), there was year over year job growth.  Job losses really started accelerating in November 2008.  April 2009 figures at the county level are not out yet, but we already know from the national data that the year over year job losses will be over 5.5 million.

Click here for the article and to view the map.

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Unemployment Rate rises to 8.9%

According to "The Employment Situation" for April 2009, released today by the U.S. Department of Labor, seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate was 8.9%, up from 8.5% in March and 5.0% a year ago. The unemployment rate is now up 3.5 percentage points in the last twelve months and is up 4.1 percentage points from its recent low of 4.4%. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 539,000 in April down from a revised 699,000 in March.  This month they revised the previous two months of March and February downward by 66,000 jobs. Last month, the total jobs lost from December 2007 to March 2009 was reported to be 5,133,000. This month, with the revisions, the total jobs lost from December 2007 to April 2009 has reached 5,738,000 jobs. The average recession since World War II has had a loss of 1,917,000 job.  The biggest loss before this recession came in 1982 with 2,838,000 jobs lost. In terms of job loss, we are in the biggest recession since the Great Depression.

The U.S. Department of Labor released the Weekly Claims data for Unemployment Insurance yesterday. Initial claims were at 601,000 for the week ending May 2. This is down from the previous week's number of 635,000. The four week average of initial claims, which is not as volatile, was at 623,500. This is down from the previous week's figure of 638,250. Continued claims for unemployment insurance increased to 6,351,000 for the week ending April 25th up from the previous week's number of 6,295,000. The four week average for continued claims was also up to 6,207,000 from 6,082,000. This is the highest continued claims has ever been. The previous high was in 1982. Initial claims is faster to move up and signals increases in the unemployment rate. Continued claims take longer to go down than the initial claims once the unemployment rate is elevated. The Unemployment rate doesn't drop until continued claims start to come down.

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index decline slows

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for February 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 2.11% from January 2008 (last month it declined by 2.55%) and declined by 18.83% from a year ago (compared to 19.39% last month). The composite-10 is now down 31.64% from its peak.

The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for the first time in over two years.  The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -12.30% by next February for the composite-10.

You can click on the images for a larger view.

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