The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released the Pending Home Sales Index for March. Seasonally adjusted, the index was down to 83.0 from 83.8 in February and was down 20.1% from 103.9 in March 2007. Not seasonally adjusted, the index was down 21.7% versus a year ago. Last month the index was down 18.1% year over year. 
2001 was the previously the slowest year since the index was started. In March 2008 the index was 19.5% lower than March 2001 and in February 2008 the index was 18.2% lower than February 2001. The NAR has yet again revised down their projection for prices in 2008 to a decline of 2.4% to $213,700 this year. In April their forecast was calling for a decline of 1.4% to a median price of $215,800. In March their forecast was calling for a decline of 1.2% to a median price of $216,300. They have lowered their 2009 forecast to $222,600 versus last month's forecast of $223,800 for 2009.
The projection of a small decline of 2.4% in 2008 sounds very practical and modest. However prices have declined by 9.8% to a first quarter median of $197,500 from the median of $219,000 reached in 2007. In order for the median for 2008 to reach $213,700, prices for the rest of the year would have to be even higher to make up for low median recorded in the first quarter. Interestingly, even though they have lowered their forecast for 2008 and 2009, the NAR has raised their 2008 third quarter forecast to $229,600 up from their forecast last month of $228,700. $229,600 is a 16.3% increase over the first quarter's median of $197,500 and is higher than the 2007's high of $229,000. The Case Shiller CME housing futures are projecting a further decline of 9.2% from February 2008 to September 2008 (this previous post has charts). It will be interesting to see if and how the NAR will revise their figures in the future.
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