Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Inflation spikes up in the core PPI numbers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods (PPI) today. Seasonally adjusted, PPI increased by 0.17% in April 2008 compared to March and was 6.40% higher than a year ago. Core PPI (PPI less food and energy) was up 0.30% compared to March and was 3.04% higher than a year ago. This is the highest core PPI has been since 1991.

Part of the reason for the drop in PPI and the rise in the core PPI was the seasonal adjustments. The Non-seasonally adjusted PPI was up 0.74% compared to March 2008 and up 6.51% compared to a year ago. The Non-seasonally adjusted core PPI was up 0.30% compared to March 2008 and up 3.04% compared to a year ago.

Inflation is at an interesting crossroads. Will inflation creep into the core numbers excluding the increases in food and energy? Or will the slowing economy dampen inflation as it typically does during recessions. The wild card is the global economy. In the past, the world was dependent on America and the world would catch a cold if the U.S. sneezed. Now the roles are reversing; we are watching China and OPEC to see what will happen to prices.


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