The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales figures for December 2007. Per the NAR, “A home sale is pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. Pending sales typically close within one or two months of signing.” Once they close, they become an existing sale. Seasonally adjusted, the index slipped 1.5% to 85.9 and was 24.2% below the level in December 2006. The seasonally adjusted numbers mask the dramatic fall. Using Non-Seasonally Adjusted numbers, the index dropped from 72.6 to 54.8. The index was started in 2001. 100 was the average for 2001. In December 2007, pending sales were a little more than half of the average month for 2001. December is the slowest month of the year for sales, and an average December is about 70% of an average month of pending sales. In July 2007, Pending Sales dramatically slowed. For the first half of the year, they had dropped to 2001 levels. From July to the end of the year, they averaged 89.1% of the 2001 level. The December 2007 level of 54.8 was only 78.3% of Decemeber 2001's level of 70.
We are currently on pace for existing sales of around 4.8 million. The NAR is more optimistic.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales activity is expected to remain soft through the first half of the year despite a generational low in mortgage interest rates. “Household formation was only half of what it should have been last year given the demographics of a growing population and sustained job growth, so there clearly is a pent-up demand from buyers who are on the sidelines,” Per the NAR, "Existing-home sales are projected at an annual pace of around 4.9 million in the first half of this year, rising notably to 5.8 million in the second half, and totaling 5.60 million for all of 2009."
Calculated Risk had a good post on existing sales. Here is his chart showing existing sales and inventory going back to 1969.
Sphere: Related Content
We are currently on pace for existing sales of around 4.8 million. The NAR is more optimistic.Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales activity is expected to remain soft through the first half of the year despite a generational low in mortgage interest rates. “Household formation was only half of what it should have been last year given the demographics of a growing population and sustained job growth, so there clearly is a pent-up demand from buyers who are on the sidelines,” Per the NAR, "Existing-home sales are projected at an annual pace of around 4.9 million in the first half of this year, rising notably to 5.8 million in the second half, and totaling 5.60 million for all of 2009."
Calculated Risk had a good post on existing sales. Here is his chart showing existing sales and inventory going back to 1969.
No comments:
Post a Comment