Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Irrational Exuberance Part 2



I visited some of Robert Shiller's graphs on Home Prices from his book “Irrational Exuberance” in this post last month.

Here are some updated charts on the historical prices of the S & P 500 index that Robert Shiller pieced together going back to 1881.

You can see his data here. S & P has a spreadsheet with 20 years of data that they update regularly here.


The real question for the stock markets going forward will be earnings. Real earnings adjusted for inflation dropped by 50% from 2000 to 2001. They started dropping in the third and fourth quarter of 2007 after rising steadily from over the previous 4 years.

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