Jon Stewart had an interesting interview with Peter Schiff where he compiled different clips over the years of people laughing at Schiff's calls.
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Here is Peter Schiff in a blast from the past:
The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for March 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 2.06% in March compared to February 2009 (last month it declined by 2.12%) and declined by 18.65% from a year ago (compared to 18.89% last month).
The composite-10 is now down 33.09% from its peak. The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for two months in a row after declining at a faster pace each month for 25 months in a row.
The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -10.40% by next March for the composite-10.
You can click on the images for a larger view.
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Slate.com has an amazing graphic showing the job losses month by month, county by county. Just as recently as June 2008 (as the map on the right shows), there was year over year job growth. Job losses really started accelerating in November 2008. April 2009 figures at the county level are not out yet, but we already know from the national data that the year over year job losses will be over 5.5 million.
Click here for the article and to view the map.
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According to "The Employment Situation" for April 2009, released today by the U.S. Department of Labor, seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate was 8.9%, up from 8.5% in March and 5.0% a year ago. The unemployment rate is now up 3.5 percentage points in the last twelve months and is up 4.1 percentage points from its recent low of 4.4%. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 539,000 in April down from a revised 699,000 in March. This month they revised the previous two months of March and February downward by 66,000 jobs. Last month, the total jobs lost from December 2007 to March 2009 was reported to be 5,133,000. This month, with the revisions, the total jobs lost from December 2007 to April 2009 has reached 5,738,000 jobs. The average recession since World War II has had a loss of 1,917,000 job. The biggest loss before this recession came in 1982 with 2,838,000 jobs lost. In terms of job loss, we are in the biggest recession since the Great Depression.
The U.S. Department of Labor released the Weekly Claims data for Unemployment Insurance yesterday. Initial claims were at 601,000 for the week ending May 2. This is down from the previous week's number of 635,000. The four week average of initial claims, which is not as volatile, was at 623,500. This is down from the previous week's figure of 638,250. Continued claims for unemployment insurance increased to 6,351,000 for the week ending April 25th up from the previous week's number of 6,295,000. The four week average for continued claims was also up to 6,207,000 from 6,082,000. This is the highest continued claims has ever been. The previous high was in 1982. Initial claims is faster to move up and signals increases in the unemployment rate. Continued claims take longer to go down than the initial claims once the unemployment rate is elevated. The Unemployment rate doesn't drop until continued claims start to come down.
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The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for February 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 2.11% from January 2008 (last month it declined by 2.55%) and declined by 18.83% from a year ago (compared to 19.39% last month). The composite-10 is now down 31.64% from its peak.
The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for the first time in over two years. The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -12.30% by next February for the composite-10.
You can click on the images for a larger view.
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The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for March 2009 yesterday. Sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.570 million units in March down from 4.710 million units in February and down from 4.920 million units in March 2008.
The median sales price was $175,200 for March up from $168,200 in February (up 4.16%) but down from $200,100 in March 2008 (down 12.4%). Months supply was 9.8 in March, up from 9.7 in February. According to the NAR, distressed properties accounted for just over half of all transactions in March and are selling for 20 percent less than traditional homes.
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Earnings season is upon us once again. According to Marketwatch: "Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research on average expect earnings at S&P 500 companies to be down 35.9% from the year-earlier quarter. Those surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings to be down 36.6% from the year earlier."
In the fourth quarter of 2008, earnings were negative as a whole for the first time for the S&P 500. On a bottom up basis, analysts are projecting that continuing earnings for Q1 2009 will come in at $13.00 a share up from -$0.11 in Q4 2008. They are projecting as reported earnings to rebound to $8.75 up sharply from the stunning loss of -$23.16 for Q4.
Analysts missed the impact the recession would have on stocks. Just 6 months ago, they forecast that Q4 continuing earnings for 2008 would be close to the all time record reached in Q3 lf 2007. They forecast that Q1 2009 would break the record.
A year ago, they also forecast a quick recovery from the drop in continuing earnings in Q4 2007.
Analysts are pricing in that the bottom is in for the recession.
Here is an update on Robert Shiller's S&P 500 graph. Going back to 1881, the average P/E ratio using the trailing 10 years of real earnings has been 16.34. As of today, the current P/E ratio is 14.82. Using the historical average, stocks are slightly undervalued. However, the stock market has traded at much lower levels in the past. In 1982 it reached 6.82 times 10 years earnings. In the Great Depression it reached 5.56 and it reached 4.78 in 1920.
The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for January 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 2.55% from December 2008 (last month it declined by 2.34%) and declined by 19.39% from a year ago (compared to 19.14% last month). The composite-10 is now down 30.16% from its peak. The Composite-10 has now declined at a faster pace year over year for 25 straight months now.
The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -7.45% by next January for the composite-10.
You can click on the images for a larger view.
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The National Association of Realtors released the existing home sales figures for February 2009 today. Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.720 million units in February up from 4.490 million units in January but down from 4.950 million units in February 2008. The median sales price was $165,400 for February up from $164,800 in January (up 0.4%) but down from $195,800 in February 2008 (down 15.5%). The January numbers were revised downward from $170,300 as reported last month to $164,800.
Months supply was 9.7 in February, the same as it was in January. According to the NAR, currently 40-45% of all transactions are distressed sales.
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