The Department of the Treasury reports daily the amount of Withheld Income and Employment Taxes. This gives us insight into income in real time. Matt Trivisonno updates the data daily on his blog. Here is his post discussing the info. Here is his daily chart.
I was able to compile complete monthly data going back to 1998. The chart on the right shows the amount of the Withheld Taxes for the past 12 months updated on a monthly basis starting January 1999 (January 1999 reflects data from February 1998 through January 1999). Withheld Taxes rose at a fast pace from 1998 and started to slow at the end of 2000. The S&P 500 started to decline around the same time that income growth started to decline. Withheld Taxes didn’t start to rise until mid 2004 well past the official end of the 2001 recession. However the rapid decline started to slow at the end of 2002. The S&P 500 bottomed out around the same time. Withheld Taxes is once again declining. Incomes tend to decline during recessions.
This second chart is a monthly version of Matt Trivisonno’s daily chart. It shows the year over year change of the Withheld Taxes for the past 12 months updated on a monthly basis. This shows how the S&P 500 is forward looking. When Withheld Taxes are starting to slow the S&P 500 declines even before the growth rate goes negative. Conversely the stock market rebounds as the decline rate starts to improve even before it turns positive.
I was able to compile complete monthly data going back to 1998. The chart on the right shows the amount of the Withheld Taxes for the past 12 months updated on a monthly basis starting January 1999 (January 1999 reflects data from February 1998 through January 1999). Withheld Taxes rose at a fast pace from 1998 and started to slow at the end of 2000. The S&P 500 started to decline around the same time that income growth started to decline. Withheld Taxes didn’t start to rise until mid 2004 well past the official end of the 2001 recession. However the rapid decline started to slow at the end of 2002. The S&P 500 bottomed out around the same time. Withheld Taxes is once again declining. Incomes tend to decline during recessions.
This second chart is a monthly version of Matt Trivisonno’s daily chart. It shows the year over year change of the Withheld Taxes for the past 12 months updated on a monthly basis. This shows how the S&P 500 is forward looking. When Withheld Taxes are starting to slow the S&P 500 declines even before the growth rate goes negative. Conversely the stock market rebounds as the decline rate starts to improve even before it turns positive. 
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