Monday, November 23, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Meredith Whitney's outlook
Meredith Whitney moved the markets last July when she made a bullish call on Goldman Sachs' earnings. Here she is with a bearish outlook. She is calling for a further decline in housing prices of 25%.
Sphere: Related ContentTuesday, August 25, 2009
S&P Case Shiller Index posts strong gains
The S&P Case Shiller Index posted strong gains. Month over month, the Composite-10 index increased by 1.9%. The index is still down 15.13% year over year. 17 of the 20 markets in the Composite-20 index posted positive month over month gains. The data for the index is a compiled using a three month average. Since last month was positive and the trend is moving up strongly, next month should also come in with a strong gain. 
The month over month gains are the highest since the market peaked in 2005.
I have removed the CME Housing Futures data from the chart because they have become so thinly traded.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Mortgage Delinquencies continue rising higher
The Mortgage Bankers Association released their National Delinquency Survey for the Second Quarter of 2009. The total residential mortgages that are at least 30 days delinquent rose to 9.24%. When including loans that are in the foreclosure process the figure rises to a startling 13.16%.
The percentage of loans that are in the foreclosure process rose to 4.30% in the second quarter up from 3.85% in the first quarter.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Meredith Whitney is bullish on banks
Meredith Whitney, the so-called most powerful woman on Wall Street, moved the markets today with a bullish short term call on the banks. She was particularly bullish on Goldman Sachs. Her earnings estimate for Goldman Sachs, which reports tomorrow, is $4.65 compared to consensus estimates of $3.48. She predicts they will earn $20 for 2009 and more than $22 for 2010.
Goldman Sachs had their highest earnings in 2007 at $24.73. 2006 was at $19.71. In a year where Goldman Sachs is deleveraging, if they can pull off these types of earnings, it will be remarkable.
Naked Capitalism has two videos of Meredith Whitney making these calls.
Friday, July 10, 2009
An overview of the housing crisis
Zero Hedge has a presentation from T2 Partners on where we are at in the housing crisis. It is packed full of great charts.
Here are a few of my favorites:
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Case-Shiller index shows the decline in housing prices is slowing
The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for April 2009 was released today by Standard and Poors. The composite-10 declined 0.67% in April compared to March 2009 (last month it declined by 2.10%) and declined by 18.01% from a year ago (compared to 18.68% last month).
The composite-10 is now down 33.56% from its peak. The Composite-10 has now declined at a slower pace year over year for three months in a row after declining at a faster pace each month for 25 months in a row. The home price index is not seasonally adjusted. In the last 20 years, home prices have averaged appreciation of 5.29% a year. March through August are typically the strongest months for appreciation and home prices have on average appreciated by 4.40% during that 6 month period. September through February are the weakest months; home prices have on average appreciated by only 0.89% during that 6 month period. In the next month or two, the index could post a positive month over month gain. However, I expect it to fall again as we head into the winter months.
The CME futures market is pricing in a further drop of -10.20% by next March for the composite-10.
You can click on the images for a larger view.
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