The decline in Sales and use tax collection is starting to accelerate. Using a weighted composite for the four largest states (California, Texas, New York, and Florida), the decline in real growth fell by an annual decline rate of 3.59% in August which was significantly down from the rate of -2.13% in July. Texas grew at a rate of 4.06% in August after adjustments for inflation which is down from the hot pace of 8.37% it averaged for 2007. New York's growth declined sharply to -3.05%. California's decline was at -6.42% in August. This is the biggest decline since March 2002. California declined on average of -2.03% in 2007. Florida continued its steady fall, declining -8.97% in August. The growth rate in Florida has been lower than the previous month for 22 months straight. Florida averaged a decline of -2.70% in 2007.
New York State is officially in recession according to the NY State's Budget director, Laura Anglin. She notes that the state's five last contractions averaged 25 months, more than double the national average of 11 months. California and Florida have also been in recession. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve publishes a map showing the quarterly change in economic activity at the state level. Here is their description of the Index:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average).
The latest map for July is dramatically different from the February 2008 map.
Here is the July 2008 map:
Here is the February 2008 map:
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